1.
medrxiv; 2021.
Preprint
in English
| medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2021.02.14.21251708
ABSTRACT
Facing B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a 2-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalizations to plateau, by decreasing transmission of the historical strain while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalizations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.